Yesterday the National Association of Realtors released its Pending Home Sales Index for October 2009 which was up 3.7% from September and up 31.8% from October 2008. The index is at its highest level since March 2006. The Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking indicator of housing sales since it measures contracts for home purchases that have not closed yet. The Pending Home Sales Index isn’t released until one month after the month reported.
Based on Northeast Illinois’ multiple listing system (Midwest Real Estate Data) pending sales for houses in Cook County and Chicago are at highs for the past 2 years following the national index.
Cook County and Chicago pending condo sales tell a very different story. June through October pending sales for condos in Cook County have been fairly flat and well below pending sales for the spring of 2008.
Chicago Condo Pending Sales November 2007 - November 2009
As shown above, October pending sales for Chicago condos are well below June 2009 and even farther below pending sales in the spring of 2008.
November pending sales for both houses and condos are down anywhere from 15% to 26% from October levels. A significant drop is to be expected given that many first time home buyers had contracts on homes before the end of October so that they could close before the November 30th tax credit deadline which was just recently extended.
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{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Hi Fran, Loyal reader in Chicago here. One comment for you on the graph above compared to NAR’s figures. NAR’s numbers are usually seasonally adjusted for the summer to winter cycle. The graph above uses actual figures from MRED, but are not seasonally adjusted. So what you’re seeing as the year progresses is the natural seasonal sales cycle. November 2009 outperformed November 2008, and the year-to-year comparisons are more useful in this example.
Hi Bob,
First, Let me say that I am very flattered that you find it worth your time to read my blog! If only you were a potential client!
I discovered your real estate blog a while back and see that you’ve implemented some cutting-edge tools such as Camtasia. Kudos to you! I’ve been wanting to try it, but just haven’t found the time yet.
Second, I don’t disagree with the statistics you shared. You are quite correct that pending condo sales were significantly higher in October and November 2009 than in 2008. The main point I was attempting to make was that Chicago condo sales in 2009 weren’t hitting highs (or near highs) like the NAR Index or the MRED pending sales for houses (even without seasonal adjustments). You make a good point about comparing seasonally adjust and non-adjusted values. The NAR Index had just come out in the news, but it would have been better to stick with a comparison of just MRED house and condo data.
The more I reread this blog post, the more I realize that I wasn’t being clear at all. Thanks for brining this to my attention. I’ll try to do better!